2003 was a freak - Lions in trouble

[injuryupdate]

David Parkin is attributed with the line that the Premiership team in the AFL is not "the best team of the year" but is the "good team with the best run of injuries".

If you go back through the winners of the GF and see whether this trend is followed:
2003 - Brisbane (NO); 2002 - Brisbane (sort of); 2001 - Brisbane (definitely yes); 2000 - Essendon (definitely yes); 1999 - Kangaroos (definitely yes); 1998 - Adelaide (yes, in terms of September rather than the whole year); 1997 - Adelaide (see 1998); 1996 - Kangaroos (yes); 1995 - Carlton (yes); 1994 - West Coast (yes); 1993 - Essendon (yes); 1992 - West Coast (yes); 1991 - Hawthorn (yes).

Looking at the Premiership winners of recent years, only Brisbane of 2003 could possibly be described as being beaten up and limping yet they still managed to nail the Grand Final. This makes them a major exception, and it seems that the general view is that it is because they are superhuman and unbeatable etc. It also may be that they were very lucky that they were playing quite an ordinary team (Collingwood) who were there because they had beaten a better side (Port) because they were fitter. According to the fitness theory, Collingwood actually started favourite in the 2003 Grand Final, with a team that wasn't fit to tie the Lions' bootlaces, and this probably didn't help them at all.

I am prepared to go out on a limb and say Port are a great bet at $2.50, as they should win the AFL Grand Final, because they are an excellent team that finally gets a chance to be fully fit in September. The Lions are human, they are beat up, and the "fitter team (injury-wise) wins Grand Finals" rule is generally a very good one.

Of course, Brisbane could prove they are easily the best team of all time by still winning, but I am almost certain that if they do it will be a very tough match.

[injuryupdate]

OK, hardly anyone had time to read this in the couple of days after I posted before the AFL Grand Final, but it proved to be dead right.

Collingwood now has the honour of being the only team in the modern era (2003) to have lost a Grand Final when they were clearly less inconvenienced by injury than their opponents of the day (Brisbane 2003)

[injuryupdate]

Of further interest is that despite my strong beliefs that the Power were over the odds at $2.50, the punters apparently couldn't get enough on Brisbane, and the Power actually went out to $2.70 before the game.

[injuryupdate]

Here is the original article from the injuryupdate Front Page:

The Brisbane Lions have made a fourth consecutive Grand Final and like last year have a large line of players under a fitness cloud. The Lions have two players in doubt with muscle strains (Craig McRae, hamstring and Alistair Lynch, calf and quadriceps). Shaun Hart looks as though he is no chance because of facial fractures, whereas Luke Power (concussion) and Jonathon Brown (knee cork) are seen as likely to play. In last year's Grand Final, the Lions used local anaesthetic on a number of players to get them on to the park, but with muscle strains this is not as useful. The players with muscle strains may be able to complete the game but wouldn't be 100% recovered, meaning that perhaps there is no absolute right answer, but merely a question of how much gamble the team is willing to take. Read about the risk-reward equation with muscle strains (.pdf). Many in the media have brought up how unfair it is on the Lions to travel for a Preliminary Final and have a day less to prepare for the Grand Final than their opponent Port Adelaide.

[injuryupdate]

The era of the Brisbane Lions as AFL Premiers is finally over, and it finally looks as though the team was human after all and couldn't withstand the heavy injury toll they suffered in this year's finals. Although there were no disasters, the players who took injuries into the Grand Final, (Craig McRae, hamstring, Alistair Lynch, calf and quadriceps, Luke Power concussion and Jonathon Brown knee cork) all had quiet games. Last year the Lions were credited with getting injured players on to the field to help them win the 2003 Grand Final. Read about the Lions' use of cutting edge medical techniques in 2003. This year, the gambles they took in playing those who had not recovered fully from muscle strains may not have paid off. Medical staff are often in a catch 22 with injured players in critical matches, and it is probably more the luck of the draw in terms of when injuries occur, than superior management, which determines the outcome of Grand Finals.